Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study aims to forecast the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia involving vaccination factors using vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The represented by active, recovered, and death case rate indicators acts as endogenous variables, while second-dose rates variables. Because sum of three one day is one, only two highest correlation are involved VARX modelling. other indicator practically projected subtracting from projection results. Based on analysis results, active recovered chosen Using Akaike information criterion, most suitable model project (7, 1). expected help Indonesian government Indonesia.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1607-887X', '1026-0226']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/6285328